[ { "abstract": "Wide-ranging interview covering parity with China, obsolescence of the post–Cold War American way of warfare, Third Offset Strategy, JADC2, the Hellscape defense concept, multi-domain swarming, human-machine teaming, and uncrewed systems.", "datePublished": "2025-11-21", "headline": "Interview with Clinton Hinote", "publisher": "Small Wars Journal (Arizona State University)", "title": "Interview with Clinton Hinote", "url": "https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/21/interview-with-clinton-hinote/" }, { "abstract": "Op-ed arguing DoD's acquisition model is a relic of the past; discusses the SECDEF mandate for the Software Acquisition Pathway (SWP); proposes data-driven metrics for software development based on Atlantic Council Commission on Software-Defined Warfare recommendations.", "datePublished": "2025-05-02", "headline": "Future warfare depends on agile, measurable software development", "publisher": "Breaking Defense", "title": "Future warfare depends on agile, measurable software development", "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/2025/05/future-warfare-depends-on-agile-measurable-software-development/" }, { "abstract": "Companion article to SCSP report; argues uncrewed systems alone are not transforming war—the combination of drones with democratized digitized C2 systems and meshed sensor networks (a transformative trinity) is what drives transformation. Draws lessons from Ukraine.", "datePublished": "2024-02-09", "headline": "Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity", "publisher": "War on the Rocks", "title": "Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity", "url": "https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/uncrewed-systems-and-the-transformation-of-u-s-warfighting-capacity/" }, { "abstract": "Commentary on the Air Force's Re-optimization for Great Power Competition review's 24 decisions announced at AFA Warfare Symposium; compares the Air Force's challenge to Kodak, Pan Am, and Blockbuster—organizations that failed to adapt.", "datePublished": "2024-02-15", "headline": "Adapt or Die: Big Air Force Changes Demand Buy-In from Within", "publisher": "Air & Space Forces Magazine", "title": "Adapt or Die: Big Air Force Changes Demand Buy-In from Within", "url": "https://www.airandspaceforces.com/adapt-or-die-big-air-force-changes-demand-buy-in-from-within/" }, { "abstract": "Part of War on the Rocks' In Brief series. Hinote argues the NDIS makes important statements—consolidation went too far, sub-tier contractors need attention, barriers to entry must be lowered—but the implementation plan should be unclassified because industrial policy is public policy.", "datePublished": "2024-01-31", "headline": "In Brief: The National Defense Industrial Strategy", "publisher": "War on the Rocks", "title": "In Brief: The National Defense Industrial Strategy", "url": "https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/in-brief-the-national-defense-industrial-strategy/" }, { "abstract": "Analyzes the Sony hack and argues for establishing deterrence in cyberspace; proposes a framework combining cyber defense, offensive capability, and shifting competition to domains where the U.S. has advantages; draws on Thomas Schelling's deterrence theory.", "datePublished": "2015-01-04", "headline": "Deterrence in Cyberspace", "publisher": "Foreign Affairs (Council on Foreign Relations)", "title": "How to Stop the Next Hack", "url": "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/how-stop-next-hack" }, { "abstract": "Comprehensive guide to no-fly zones, drawing on personal experience enforcing no-fly zones over Iraq and expertise from the USAF Weapons School. Also republished at The National Interest and from CFR's Defense in Depth blog.", "datePublished": "2015-05-05", "headline": "Everything You Need To Know About No-Fly Zones", "publisher": "Defense One", "title": "Everything You Need To Know About No-Fly Zones", "url": "https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/05/everything-you-need-know-about-no-fly-zones/111898/" }, { "abstract": "Analyzes Russia's decision to sell the S-300 missile defense system to Iran; explains three key reasons why this is significant: mobility and lethality, regional balance-of-power shifts, and arms-race risk.", "datePublished": "2015-04-20", "headline": "The Russian Weapon That Could Tip The Balance in the Middle East", "publisher": "Defense One", "title": "The Russian Weapon That Could Tip The Balance in the Middle East", "url": "https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2015/04/russian-weapon-could-tip-balance-middle-east/110533/" }, { "abstract": "Analyzes the U.S. decision to install a THAAD missile interceptor system in South Korea and how it could force Seoul to choose between its Washington alliance and its Beijing relationship.", "datePublished": "2015-03-26", "headline": "The US Missile System Driving a Wedge Between China, South Korea", "publisher": "Defense One", "title": "The US Missile System Driving a Wedge Between China, South Korea", "url": "https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/03/us-missile-system-driving-wedge-between-china-south-korea/108571/" }, { "abstract": "Outlines five categories of an enemy's system that can determine the success or failure of the U.S.-led air campaign in Syria.", "datePublished": "2014-10-01", "headline": "How To Determine the Success of Air Strikes in Syria", "publisher": "Defense One", "title": "How To Determine the Success of Air Strikes in Syria", "url": "https://www.defenseone.com/business/2014/10/how-determine-success-air-strikes-syria/95564/" }, { "abstract": "Argues that as Iraqi security forces regain their footing, ISIS's use of terror is not enough to relieve battlefield pressure; expansion has slowed and some territorial gains rolled back.", "datePublished": "2014-09-01", "headline": "The Islamic State May Have Hit the Point of Diminishing Returns", "publisher": "Defense One", "title": "The Islamic State May Have Hit the Point of Diminishing Returns", "url": "https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2014/09/islamic-state-may-have-hit-point-diminishing-returns/93134/" }, { "abstract": "Written after execution of journalist James Foley; discusses U.S. strategy against ISIS leadership, drawing parallels to the 2006 killing of Zarqawi; argues that targeting individual leaders requires intense intelligence and often doesn't end a movement.", "datePublished": "2014-08-26", "headline": "The risk in targeting the head of the Islamic State", "publisher": "The Washington Post (Opinions)", "title": "The risk in targeting the head of the Islamic State", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-risk-in-targeting-the-head-of-the-islamic-state/2014/08/26/964d32da-2c84-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html" }, { "abstract": "Cross-posted version of his comprehensive guide to no-fly zones.", "datePublished": "2015-01-01", "headline": "No-Fly Zones: The Ultimate Guide", "publisher": "The National Interest", "title": "No-Fly Zones: The Ultimate Guide", "url": "https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/no-fly-zones-the-ultimate-guide-12813" }, { "abstract": "Discusses reports that the coalition may have injured or killed al-Baghdadi; argues this will not end the movement—only repudiation by the local population can defeat ISIS.", "datePublished": "2014-10-01", "headline": "If Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Dead: Could This Be the End of ISIS?", "publisher": "The National Interest", "title": "If Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Is Dead: Could This Be the End of ISIS?", "url": "https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/if-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-dead-could-be-the-end-isis-11652" }, { "abstract": "Argues the continued participation of Middle Eastern states in anti-ISIS operations is crucial for long-term success and U.S. leadership worldwide.", "datePublished": "2014-09-01", "headline": "The Air War Against ISIS: The Deciding Factor", "publisher": "The National Interest", "title": "The Air War Against ISIS: The Deciding Factor", "url": "https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-air-war-against-isis-the-deciding-factor-11467" }, { "abstract": "Analyzes Putin's decision to sell the S-300 missile system to Iran after the UN hold was lifted; discusses implications for regional military balance.", "datePublished": "2015-04-01", "headline": "Russia's S-300 Sale to Iran: 3 Things You Need to Know", "publisher": "The National Interest", "title": "Russia's S-300 Sale to Iran: 3 Things You Need to Know", "url": "https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/russias-s-300-sale-iran-3-things-you-need-know-12677" }, { "abstract": "Applies counterinsurgency concepts from Army FM 3-24 to the Ebola response effort, drawing parallels between fighting insurgencies and fighting infectious disease.", "datePublished": "2014-10-01", "headline": "One Way To Combat The Ebola Virus: Use Counterinsurgency Tactics", "publisher": "The National Interest", "title": "One Way To Combat The Ebola Virus: Use Counterinsurgency Tactics", "url": "https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/one-way-combat-the-ebola-virus-use-counterinsurgency-tactics-11387" }, { "abstract": "Analysis of the Islamic State's A Message to America execution video; discusses IS's strategic messaging, implications for U.S. military strategy, and the risk of mission creep.", "datePublished": "2014-08-01", "headline": "Guest Post: The ISIS Video and Military Strategy in Iraq", "publisher": "Council on Foreign Relations (Blog)", "title": "Guest Post: The ISIS Video and Military Strategy in Iraq", "url": "https://www.cfr.org/blog/guest-post-isis-video-and-military-strategy-iraq" }, { "abstract": "Original publication of his argument that counterinsurgency concepts apply to the Ebola crisis; the struggle is about legitimacy and the people.", "datePublished": "2014-10-01", "headline": "Ebola and Counterinsurgency—A Struggle for Legitimacy", "publisher": "Council on Foreign Relations (Blog)", "title": "Ebola and Counterinsurgency—A Struggle for Legitimacy", "url": "https://www.cfr.org/blog/ebola-and-counterinsurgency-struggle-legitimacy" }, { "abstract": "Analyzes the strategic implications of Russia's S-300 sale to Iran; argues it represents a fundamental shift in Middle East military balance regarding air operations.", "datePublished": "2015-04-01", "headline": "Russia's Sale of the S-300 to Iran Will Shift Military Balance", "publisher": "Newsweek", "title": "Russia's Sale of the S-300 to Iran Will Shift Military Balance", "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/russias-sale-s-300-iran-will-shift-military-balance-324341" }, { "abstract": "Fictional/speculative strategy article set in the future about rebuilding after strategic failure; published in the inaugural issue of Air University's Æther journal.", "datePublished": "2024-01-01", "headline": "After Defeat: A Time to Rebuild", "publisher": "Air University (Æther Journal)", "title": "After Defeat: A Time to Rebuild", "url": "https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AEtherJournal/Journals/Volume-1_Issue-1/05-Hinote.pdf" }, { "abstract": "New technologies often require updating old ideas, old strategies, and old ways of preparing humans for war. The influx of new technologies into military institutions is continuous, occurring since the dawn of war, albeit with increased frequency since the First Industrial Revolution. Every now and then, however, a new\ntechnology forces a disruptive shift in how wars are started, fought and ended. Uncrewed systems—which are now undergoing a form of Cambrian Explosion in capability, quality and quantity—appear to be such a technology. These systems are disrupting how combatants are considering risk, cost and authority on the\nmodern battlefield. ", "datePublished": "", "headline": "Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity", "publisher": "Special Competitive Studies Project", "title": "Empowering the Edge", "url": "https://www.scsp.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SCSP-Drone-Paper-Hinote-Ryan.pdf" } ]